According Tencent 2023 Q2 financial report data, “Honor of Kings” international version in Argentina region voucher price because peso annual depreciation 64.5% (2022 January to 2023 June), make 6480 voucher pack local currency price from 3299 peso adjust to 6199 peso, but USD settlement price keep 99.99 USD unchanged, actual RMB cost fluctuation range reach ±18.7%. 2023 March Turkey region because lira annual inflation rate 85.5%, Tencent adjust 60 voucher price from 2.99 lira (about RMB 1.1 yuan) increase to 3.69 lira (RMB 1.36 yuan), rise 23.6%, cause this region iOS top up volume weekly drop 41.2%.
Third-party recharge black market use regional price difference arbitrage, 2023 “China Game Security Industry Report” show through Turkey Apple ID recharge 6480 voucher cost about 412 yuan, compare China official price 648 yuan low 36.4%, but cause Tencent monthly ban abnormal account over 150k (total ban account 27.3%). 2022 Zhejiang police solve “Glory Coin” illegal recharge case, criminal group use 38 overseas payment account do exchange rate arbitrage, monthly transaction turnover reach 23 million yuan, arbitrage space 17.8%-24.6%.
Seasonal activity direct affect top up fluctuation, 2024 Spring Festival limited skin “Lucky Dragon” release period, daily top up peak value reach 420 million yuan, compare daily average increase 320%. But activity end after 7 days, top up frequency median drop from daily 1.7 times to 0.9 times, ARPPU (average revenue per paying user) from 148 yuan fall to 89 yuan. Tencent 2023 anniversary event launch “top up rebate” activity, make 648 yuan tier purchase proportion from normal 29.4% surge to 61.8%, but activity end month user retention rate drop 12.7 percentage points.
Policy regulation create structural impact, 2021 National Press and Publication Administration “Notice on Preventing Minors from Online Game Addiction” implement after, 16-18 years old user monthly average top up amount from 328 yuan drop to 91 yuan, decrease 72.3%. 2023 July implement “Interim Measures for Generative AI Service Management”, make AI recharge customer service system response speed from 0.8 second extend to 2.4 second, abnormal transaction intercept accuracy drop 9.6 percentage points. honor of kings top up price system because Brazil 2023 digital service tax (DST) from 2% increase to 5%, cause local Android recharge service fee cost increase 1.8 percentage points.